About James Gaines

Research Economist.

Texas Foreclosure Rate Better than Nation Overall

Texas continues to experience relatively low foreclosure and delinquency rates according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) 2Q2011 National Delinquency Survey released Aug. 22. MBA data support similar findings in recent local surveys by Foreclosure Listing Service for the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the RexReport for San Antonio (see the Real Estate Center’s Aug. 23 RECON).

Foreclosure data continue to be muddied by the ongoing legal wrangling over foreclosure Continue reading

June Home Sales and the ‘Cancellation Rate’

In a July 20, 2011, news release, National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said this is an uneven recovery.

Home sales had been trending up without a tax stimulus, but a variety of issues are weighing on the market including an unusual spike in contract cancellations in the past month. The underlying reason for elevated cancellations is unclear, but with problems including tight credit and low appraisals, 16 percent of NAR members report a sales contract was cancelled in June, up from 4 percent in May, which stands out in contrast with the pattern over the past year.

According to NAR, the cancellation rate is computed as the percentage difference between the Pending Home Sales Index and actual sales that month. Generally, the Pending Sales Index is regarded as a leading indicator of home sales for the next one to three months, allowing for the normal time it takes between signing a contract to purchase a home (the Pending Sales Index) and the actual closing (the home sales report). Look at the Pending Sales Index since January 2005 compared to an index of closed home sales below.

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